The impact of internal population displacement on the regional structure of vocational education

Abstract

The scale and duration of internal displacement in Ukraine significantly reform the demand for VET programs, the load on institutions and the spatial configuration of the network, increasing the demand for short programs and stimulating dual formats. The study aims to assess how mobility changes the volumes of recruitment and completion of training, the structure of specialties and the duration of training, as well as to propose management solutions for network planning and financing of VET. Methods. A comparative analysis of official interregional educational and labor indicators was used to compare the receiving transit and frontline regions and track the dynamics of recruitment, completion, retention and employment. Analysis of policies and practices based on documents and sources, content-oriented review – to explain quantitative results and identify effective management decisions. A prototype of the nowcasting dashboard was used to quickly track recruitment and changes, as well as monitor the current demand for specialties and short programs. Results. It is shown that in the receiving regions, the mobility of education seekers is associated with an increase in demand for short programs, microqualifications and dual trajectories; in the transit and front-line zones, mixed and distance-practical models dominate. Profile heterogeneity of educational programs is revealed: in the areas of reconstruction, the need for fast trajectories is growing, in laboratory-intensive specialties, re-equipment and mentoring are key. Combined interventions (dual training, microqualifications, career services, and accommodation support) are associated with higher retention and faster employment. Conclusions. Combining data from targeted analysis with management tools (adaptive financing, interregional coordination of recruitment, scaling of dual and microqualification solutions, integrated support services) and nowcasting tools reduces territorial asymmetries. It aligns the offer with the needs of regional labor markets.