THE FUTURE OF 'PHYSICAL EDUCATION' IN CIVIL PROFESSIONAL AND HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS WITHOUT NON-PROFESSIONAL PHYSICAL EDUCATION FOR APPLICANTS

Abstract

Introduction. The physical education system in civilian vocational and higher education institutions of Ukraine is experiencing a deep crisis, manifested in critically low health indicators of students. A legitimate question arises: what will be the future of "Physical Education" in civilian vocational and higher education institutions if non-professional physical culture education is not implemented? Is the traditional model capable of responding to the challenges of the 21st century, especially in the conditions of wartime and post-war Ukraine? The aim of the study is to forecast and critically analyze possible scenarios for the development of "Physical Education" in civilian vocational and higher education institutions of Ukraine under the condition of preserving the traditional model and the absence of implementation of non-professional physical culture education for students. Material and methods of the research. The study was conducted at the Educational and Scientific Institute "Prydniprovska State Academy of Physical Culture and Sports" of the Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies during 2025. To achieve the goal, a battery of complementary research methods was applied: analysis of literary sources and documents, trend extrapolation, scenario forecasting, systems analysis, comparative analysis, logical analysis of cause-and-effect relationships, and expert assessment. Results. The future of "Physical Education" without non-professional physical culture education was examined under different scenarios. Scenario 1: Pessimistic — degradation and marginalization. Scenario 2: Realistic — stagnation and imitation of changes (the most likely scenario according to expert assessments). Scenario 3: Optimistic — fragmentary modernization. Each of them has unfavorable consequences if the traditional model of "Physical Education" is preserved. All of them have adverse consequences for the health of the nation, economy, national security, education system, and international integration. In contrast, comparison of the continuation of the existing state with a possible alternative development path through the implementation of non-professional physical culture education for students of vocational and higher education institutions shows significant advantages of this approach in all indicated components. Conclusions. Preservation of the traditional model of "Physical Education" in civilian vocational and higher education institutions without implementation of non-professional physical culture education most likely leads to pessimistic consequences for the health of the nation, economy, and national security of Ukraine. The most probable scenario is stagnation with imitation of changes, which does not solve systemic problems. The concept of non-professional physical culture education for students and their formation as builders of their own health represents an alternative development path that meets modern international standards (competence-based approach, student-centered learning, lifelong learning) and aligns with global health goals (WHO Health 2020, UN SDG 3, WHO Global Action Plan on Physical Activity 2018-2030).